I give a shout out to my son on his birthday - and a great run he is having trading chip stocks this year.
When asked about NVDA, AMD, and INTC - I explain the fundamental context - but prices are at the mercy of crowds right now.
We also discuss how long the consumer can keep spending - Wal Mart is the canary in the coal mine.
Happy Friday!
Before we get onto the long weekend, Brian Sozzi asked my opinions about oil, rates, and the new mega-IPO fever. First off, if you study IPOs over time, most will go below their initial price somewhere in the first year - that's just a math fact. With 5 times the amount of shares allocated to retail investors, SpaceX is setting up for a ton of volatility. Plus, you are not getting growth from a small firm, it's being valued at almost 2 trillion!!! What is your upside from here? Private equtiy already got 10-15x their money, and you are just buying up shares at the end of the line. Did I mention they don't yet make a profit..at this size.
As for rates, I explain how this week was a great entry point to buy long duration treasuries. But I warn that without a strategy, buying long duration is playing with fire.
Just a Monday morning roundup of what is moving markets. While markets are moving on to the secondary names in the AI race (AMD over NVDA), the reality has not changed. Oil is still at a standstill in the middle east, and while investors look through the chaos and bid up semiconductor stocks, we will need the oil to eventually move or it's going to be tough for many companies to keep earnings robust. The good news? The American consumer is spending more and as strong as ever.
I got to let it rip with this interview with my good friends Brian and Jarred.
We covered the snoozefest we call Netflix earnings - but more than that, what exactly will lead this market higher before yearend? We still have a conflict with Iran, we still haven't seen the earnings effect of the supply shock.
A lot could happen - so when you see markets do a year worth of gains in 10 days, think about your life and if you did some buying during the March correction, perhaps it's time to rebalance and chill out a little. I am.
Brian Sozzi asked me back on Monday after retuning from a restful spring break - and markets just can't seem to face the reality that higher oil prices will impact earnings this year. There is no way around it. But, I also suggest that the big banks that wrote "oil at 200" this weekend is unlikely. Why? Because high prices destroy demand.
It's Friday and Opening Bid on Yahoo! Finance brought out the big guns. Brian Sozzi is basically a genius. He hand picks all his guests. And for a Friday blowout he paired me with Tom Sosnoff - one of the great tactical traders of our time. Tom is a futures trader that plays every pitch, while I wait for the fat pitch. Tom trades volatility, I allocate around. While Tom sees the world in volatility and probabilities, I work on the macro and earnings.
But here is the thing - our view of markets are very similar right now and that speaks volumes. We both agreed that the juice isn't worth the squeeze with current market levels - the upside of being long isn't worth it. We both think the market grinds down from here, and my thoughts are having to wait for earnings season to pick up in order to see the reduction in forward guidance - meaning, investors won't get nervous until CEOs start to talk about the impact of oil going forward.
Right now? My bust guess is that investors and trades think Trump will just end the war tomorrow and peace will break out - but those people don't do their homework - infrastructure to LNG and oil fields take years to repair - or as I said "this ain't fixing a pothole in Boston."
Brian Sozzi asked me to give his viewers my take on markets after the second week of conflict with Iran. We agreed on one thing - Wall Street has been slow to the reality that this is a real oil shock, with real repercussions for 2026. That includes saying goodbye to Fed cuts this year, further compression in software stocks, and overall being patience and not reacting to headlines.
If you really want to take advantage of lower prices for stocks and bonds - then wait for actual lower prices. Because we aren't even down 5% from all time highs for the broad market. That isn't a correction, yet.
What a treat! My long time friend and Yahoo! Finance host invited me to hang out on the NYSE and see the closing bell ring - because who wouldn’t want to visit the cathedral of capitalism. While we were waiting, why not do a quick interview?
We cover oil, how markets had not yet started to get volatile, and most important, how software and tech in general needs to come down in valuation - or as I like to say MAKE TECH VALUE AGAIN. Enjoy!
Why not have a tag line? MAKE TECH VALUE AGAIN
What I mean by all of this is if we simply have mega tech go sideways for nine months the forward earnings are so strong, so huge, that multiples will go down naturally. Or in other words, the earnings catch up with the price. And really, people think this war with Iran will go away soon. I'm not so sure.
I lay out my strategy for the year - because sometimes cheap becomes dear and dear grows into the multiple.
Charles producer reached out to see if I would be willing to discuss value stocks - and of course the answer was yes!
Here is the bottom line: Value isn’t a sector. It’s a discipline. It’s paying less for a stream of cash flows than that business is worth. Sometimes that’s energy. Sometimes it’s financials. And sometimes it’s mispriced tech like Amazon - or Google a year ago. It’s about valuation relative to growth and durability — not about whether a company makes steel or software.
Right now, some areas we traditionally associate with value are very pricy, and the hot glamor stocks (just call that the Nasdaq 100!) have seen their inflated multiple come down, just not enough to get me excited - yet.
Remember that CEOs don't grow up wanting to be a value stock - it's something that happens due to poor performance, investor sentiment, and economic trends. So don't go looking for the Loch Ness monster - which is a permanent value stock - we call that a value TRAP.
