Munson Asked About Buffet's Big Pile of Cash

I was asked to comment on Berkshire Hathaway’s quarterly earnings release. It was an uneventful quarter - but the headlines said it all this week - Buffet’s $325 BILLION cash pile. I get it. Since I was in my 20s I’ve been hearing about how the cash pile just gets bigger. Bigger than last year. Biggest in history. Never been bigger ever, even in past big years. The law of large numbers and specific investment mandates (called having some discipline on valuations and types of things you buy and don’t buy) prevent the speedy reinvestment of all that cash that gets created - and this quarter billions more of profits off his Apple position were cashed out.

From the value persepctive, all of this makes sense. His value stocks have not performed like the momentum tech shares of the MAG7. But that is not what he is doing, right? Look at OXY. For several years it’s been doing nothing. Why not keep cash earning a risk free treasury rate instead? I say good move. Nobody knows what exactly the plan is - but you should listen to what the people that own and run the company are saying. They are saying they had some big winners.

Some profits are being taken. Nothing out there looks great at a good valuation. That’s it.

Halloween Horror: Talking Tech stocks on CNBC

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I always wanted to do a guest spot on Halloween.

As a value minded guy, it was a pleasure to share the stage with Tom Hancock from GMO. Sometimes you look for a pickaxe, and sometimes there is just a single, focused thing that is going on. You try to pick the fastest horse and try to remember its a long distance.

Clearly, when i look at e-Commerce, I'm not really trying to pick winners below Amazon. I'd rather look at a pick axe business that is a necessary component in the production cycle (warehouse logistics), that can grow revenues with the overall growth of the industry and in addition offer cost savings and productivity increases. But for getting big firms to move IT to the cloud, I would simply rather own the places that are getting those large annual checks.

In the end, a ton of this spending is happing inside companies in the Nasdaq 100 and SP500. In fact, they are a huge component to what is driving those indexes.

Munson on CNBCs The Exchange - stream swipe and staples

We get right into the first question: does the height of my hair correlate to how bullish I am? Probably...

I discuss what is at state with earnings from Netflix, American Express and Proctor and Gamble. My take on what matters is rather simple.

Netflix is more about controlling costs - who else can they sign up these days?

Amex is about the high end consumer, and trades for twice the multiple than card firms that cater to the less affluent.

PG is a different thing. It's trading at a 24x on earnings with only 2% organic growth? This makes me uncomfortable. I've seen this before....in 2000 it traded at a 30x and people didn't care because it was a blue chip stock. But I have always believed that no company is worth an infinite amount of money.

Munson on What Bond, Bank and Oil Markets Are Telling Us

We go though the major issues of bank earnings, what bond markets are telling us, and the speculation in oil.

Banks are doing great and investors continue to push up the prices. I suspect a lot of this is about the presumption of a Trump victory and less regulation. It could also be general bullishness on a no landing scenario for 2025.

As for bond markets, the long term rates keep going higher post-September Fed meeting. Which is what usually happens on a cutting cycle - just look at the history. I explain I'm out of long term treasuries. It's simple. I see very little upside and a ton of downside if inflation picks up just a tad next year on a hot economy.

Lastly, what people need to understand about commodities is that the price only moves once the event happens. So while there is massive bullish option buying in oil markets - until an event happens, ostensibly Israel attacking Iran - the price won't spike until disruptions begin. This is totally different to stock markets which are always in a state of predictions going out 6-18 months.

Munson and Maria Talk First Fed Cut in Four Years

It's not about 25 or 50bps cut - it's about the markets reaction to the cuts. Over the next few days and weeks, markets will experience a lot of noise. The question is if we can get enough movement up or down to find good buy or good sell points. Sure, the election still matters, but going forward the Fed will be able to cut rates - creating another regime of the "Fed Put" that let's market participants know - any rough waters ahead the Fed will have your back.

Monday Meltdown? Munson With Maria Bartiromo: All About the Yen

Excited to expose the truth about Monday's market - Yen carry trade...

FYI - the VIX went to 68%, it's priced using options, not end of world.

See, when traders have to unwind (especially leveraged players borrowing yen - they further leverage buying not stock, more futures and options) in the options market, it makes huge moves. VIX prices using those options, so a false signal suggest the end of the world.

Fox Business asks Lee Munson about Pepsi, Banks, and how to invest cash

How exciting! I was in studio with Maria Bartiromo talking about the topics of the day. Nothing beats being studio a feeling the energy live.

First, we hit earnings for Pepsi. The firm just can't grow more than 4%. While that could be a red flag for the consumer - not being able to acclimate to higher inflation - the other host suggested it could be slow erosion from weight loss drugs. Probably a little of both.

Then we discussed the banks - one of my favorite topics. I keep banging the drum on private credit risk.

On top of that I'm sticking to my position that the Fed won't cut until the eelction is over and we have some visibility as to the fundamental growth prospects. Remember, the election is an economic fundamental when you think about policies. Wall street disagrees and seems to think artificial intelligence is all that matters.

The new rules of investing: Lee Munson's (unfiltered) expert advice

Wow - what a treat to do a totally unscripted, unfiltered, no tie required.

Remember - this podcast/video is geared towards younger investors, and yes - sometimes I need a little fun where I can let my hair down and blast away. It’s summer in NYC and I dress accordingly.

“In this episode of Stocks in Translation, Portfolio Wealth Advisors chief investment officer Lee Munson discusses the history of traditional investing philosophies before pronouncing those strategies as dead. According to Munson, "the game has totally changed." Yahoo Finance's Stocks in Translation master statistician, Jared Blikre, is your guide with essential conversation cutting through the market mayhem, noisy numbers, and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio.”

CNBC The Exchange with Lee Munson: US Election an Underrated Risk

Back in the studio with Kelly Evans - a lot of energy and telling it like it is!

I spell out why the election is an underrated risk. Interest rates are the tell. We get into the main economic differences between the two candidates. Then we discuss the amazing earnings of the mega cap stocks and why that drives me nuts.