The first adventure was driving to work at 4am after a major snow storm, then we got to the real fireworks on TV: breaking down the two effects of the disappointing jobs report.
ADP printed -300k jobs while the estimates were closer to +200K - that's half a million less jobs. Okay, blame Omicron, but shouldn't the estimates taken that into account? I don't know, and like to see the revised numbers next month. And yes, December numbers were revised down a bit.
First off, I would speculate this will settle down those voices talking up a 50bps rate hike in March - you really think the Fed is going to move that fast? What about after these jobs numbers??? We will see. Second, some would suggest the weak numbers mean a return to long duration assets that do well when rates are going down and growth is hard to find. I say that's wishful thinking on top of Facebook losing 20% of it's value last night.
My point today was to remind investors that just because cyclicals have done well recently as rates have risen - it can keep doing well if inflation persists and the Fed hikes for a while. And just because a pricy tech firm corrects 20%, it can get a lot worse - just check out a chart of CSCO from 2000-2002 and you will get my drift.