I get right into the two big points of this early morning hit.
First off, we have a math problem. When earnings on the SP500 are expected to be under 240 per share, even at a 20 multiple, we are already near the high end of the range. It's going to take several quarters just to prove 240 per share is possible (it's high, but can happen). Then at 10% earnings growth I'm only getting around 5200 on the SP500 at 2025 earnings with a 20 multiple. Don't expect overnight success in 2024.
Second, I keep saying it. The Fed wants inflation dead, really dead, before cutting. Right now they say 75bps of cuts by end of next year. Why does everyone thing it will be much sooner and with larger cuts? If you think that growth will get that depressed that quickly to force the Fed's hand, then tell me how stocks are going much higher than today? In the end, bulls are betting that cutting costs over top line revenue growth and a Fed that buckles is the macro case. I find that very optimistic. Don't count it out, but don't bet the ranch on it.