Yet To Feel Coronavirus In America Says Munson

I’m not a doctor, so I read the CDC’s information on the spread of the Coronavirus. We should expect this will spread because the experts say it will spread. This isn’t two market pundits arguing about the direction of the stock market. Now that our initial buying was complete at the 10% correction level, the next step is waiting for a retest of Friday’s lows on February 28th.

While I want more than anything to see a full 20% correction taking the SP500 down to 2750ish - nobody said you would get that, or if the market would stop going down at that point. It’s just a point; it’s just a bear market correction level. All I can say is that the market will give you what it gives you and you have the opportunity to listen and take action, or choose to anchor on a past number that is as random as markets.

So, if we saw a retest, or whatever you call it when I start buying again - what would I want to buy? Well, at this point I would like to add to my SP500 position and my Emerging Markets position to overweight them. At the same time, I’m using this correction to reduce a some Europe and Japan (aka our EFA holdings).

That’s all I know right now, and even that will change over time. You can also do nothing and ride out the storm. Because this too shall pass. P.S. Remember you still have Democratic primaries infecting the market at the same time.

What a week. And yes, I was having a bad hair day and only had time to hop in front of the camera and start talking!

Munson On Day 3 Of Coronavirus Panic, Relaxed And Waiting

The Watch List with Nicole Petallides is a favorite. Why? Nicole is always spot on with the questions people need to get answered AND they give me enough time to actually cover a topic properly.

This was day three of the panic - on the worst week since 2008. We had already sone some initial rebalancing, and just waiting for a full 10% correction around SP500 3050 - which we got the next day.

My main point was that you have to know what to buy, keep it simple and understand that a virus was coming in waves. Meaning, while China was slowly recovering, Italy was just starting.

I wore a Japanese mad cashmere jacket by John Varvatos. Very warm.

Munson Talks Initial Coronavirus/Sanders Selloff

This was day two of the massive selloff stemming from the Corona virus, and I added in that a Sanders victory the following week on Super Tuesday (didn’t happen) was getting people nervous. The soundbite was “Corona Feels The Bern.”

We were looking for a 10% correction around 3050 on the SP500 - and two days later we got it, and bought it. It’s fun to look back on how I felt that week, and how I steered the ship during the worst down week since 2008.

Plus - I had a very cool Alexander McQueen blazer for good luck.

It's great to be back on CNBC's Power Lunch discussing the huge one week selloff. Let me be clear, I'm a bull. I did some buying this week for the usual 5 and 10% corrections. But, but, but - we have some big issues that are both rare and serious.

First, we are contending not with a financial or political issue (those are easy!), but a change of behavior. Put another way, the cure to prevent widespread contagion is to stay away from other people. This will reduce consumption. Period. Second, I expect this to blow over by summertime. But if we get a few months of school closings and big events cancelled, it won't create pent up demand as I have saying earlier this week, it will mute demand. That is why I'm taking a rare step not seen since September of 2008 when Lehman went under.

So, what exactly am I doing differently? I drew a line in the sand and will not consider any more dip buying until we see a full 20% correction on the SP500 - around 2750. I strongly believe we will retest the 12/24/18 lows of 2350 - hey, that's 20% from here! Next, as you know I tend never to capitulate and sell stocks during a panic, but we did reduce our international (i.e. Europe and Japan) along with small cap indexes to buy some gold.

There is only one reason to sell stocks when you don't need the money - because you think you can buy them back cheaper in the near future. You can still be a long term investor and bullish on stocks while being pragmatic. While I may be wrong and the market bounces from here with not a worry in the world - but the virus is coming.

I'm not concerned about the body count; I'm very concerned about 2 months of everyone in America slightly slowing down consumption staying in to stay safe. Now - let's get this show on the road. Let's see the relief pop and then let's see the retest where we can buy with confidence and make some money!

Munson Calls Telsa Top, How to Trade Corona Virus February 4, 2020

Another slam dunk for energy, enthusiasm, and just plan fun hanging out with Jen Rogers and crew of The Final Round. First off - I show the 2008 Volkswagon chart and drop the mic - is this what’s happening with Tesla? The next day it dropped 300 points, so yeah, probably. Then I go off to explain what would cause me to get into this market and do some buying. The bottom line, you have to wait and see the markets really make a big move, not just a single day or two of high volatility. I’m not impressed with a 10% retracement on Chinese and Hong Kong stock indexes that only get us back to early December. Yes, the S&P 500 doing a 10% drop would be a cool buy point - but these other markets are far more volatile, so let’s wake up for more of a 15-20% drop considering how bad the infection could spread - or not. This is they key point - let the market show us, and don’t try to second guess what is. Like Luke Skywalker defeating the Death Star - you have to “wait for it.” At the end we play a game of what overpriced garbage would I buy - pot stocks, bitcoin, Tesla, or Beyond Meat - come on, I just said Beyond Meat because I’m a vegan - because I wouldn’t buy any of them!!! Stick to the basics, be patient, and have the courage of your conviction.

Munson talks Small Caps and REITs January 28, 2020

Nicole Petallides is all pro and even more fun to talk markets with. She and I yapped it up on what I was looking at during the coronavirus volatility. Here is the thing - we don’t know how this will pan out, so why not stick to your guns and add to things you wanted more of pre-virus. For me, that includes adding to emerging markets if they really get beat up - think 10-15% off from the year.

Also, I go through what we are overweighting right now - small cap value has come alive after a few years of underperformance and our models suggest more exposure versus less. Same thing for REITs - and let’s be practical, investors are yield starved, the Fed isn’t raising rates tomorrow, and I’d rather have a diversified REIT basket as a defensive play than mess around with utilities. Enjoy the tapes - because I really enjoyed doing this interview today.

Munson's Favorite Yahoo Interview Of The Year, Oct 1, 2019

Need I say more?

Jen and the gang at The Final Round let the tapes roll as I whistle through the graveyard of finance.

I literally talk about everything that is on my mind that's relevant to managing money over the next year:

Pessimism in Europe Trade war in China Value momentum overtaking growth

What it takes to invest in emerging markets, and why I have it

Why our clients can stick with volatile times with no fear

How to trade this year, how to trade next year

The list goes on and I love the energy of this hit.

Munson's Bull Case For Gold and What He Is Telling Clients Oct 1, 2019

Dropping by TD Ameritrade Network Studio in the NASDAQ building. Very cool to go down to Time Square and feel the energy of the people looking in from outside - it's like being on the Today Show! It's a great 8 minute interview where I just let it rip.

The highlights are my case for gold, a rally going into the end of the year - why a recession is possible later next year - and most importantly, what I'm telling clients to do with their money.

If you want the real deal - this is it.

Lee Munson and Maria Bartiromo Bull Now, Bear Later Oct 1, 2019

It's always a pleasure working with Maria. This time around I was in NYC meeting with client's when I stopped by to talk my trade strategy over the next year.

First, volatility didn't materialize which didn't shock me. August already saw major asset classes retest December lows. But, the S&P 500 didn't. I think traders ignored the other retests and thought the S&P 500 had to follow, and it didn't. Most people trade the VIX, which is tied to the S&P 500 - it's the details, right?

Second, I explain why earnings season will be fine: expectations were slashed this summer. Of course it will be fine! So strap in for a Santa Clause rally.

Third, what really raised some eyes (even mine) was my prognostication that earnings estimates are 30-40% too high for next year - specifically the end of the year. That could turn out to be very wrong if we end the trade war and have another four years of a pro-business US President. But then again, we are talking about the market rising on hope and a narrative of consumer confidence versus bottom line earnings.

The bottom line: expect the mostly likely scenario and be prepared for the opposite.

Munson On Small Cap Value Surge September 11, 2019

I tried to put on a business as usual face during this interview on September 11th. It was great to have a distraction from reflecting on this historic day in history that we shall never forget. What was on my mind? Simple. I was really enjoying the surge in small cap value stocks, and really, all value stocks that week. We don’t know if this was a false start or the beginning of a major rotation out of overpriced growth stocks and into firms with higher earnings yields and lower valuations.

Also, I loved the other guys point on silver. After 10 years of not being interested in gold, I’m definitely looking to start adding exposure as the Fed continues to devalue money while little upside in bond appreciation is left.