Fox Business With Maria Bartiromo and Lee Munson talk strategy

I get down to it - you sell into strength - otherwise known as trim higher after a year of adding lower.

Earnings are coming in ok, job market is still tight, and we have yet to see unemployment or inflation get low enough for the Fed to ease policy. I've been overweight since last year, adding lower, and explain I don't have a desire to chase tech and I'm concerned about earnings going into the end of the year.

When you can't tell if you are in consensus or out of consensus, it means nobody knows what is going on. Plan accordingly.

Seana Smith and Dave Briggs get the Friday Afternoon Special on Bank, Skiing Taos

Oh what fun it is to have an interview right before popping off to my favorite place in the world in the winter - Taos Ski Valley.

Dave Briggs was ready to jump on the plane and join me, but first we get to the heart of the matter when looking at bank stocks.

Then I get into my thoughts on all of the annual prognostications required of Wall Street CIOs and analysts. Bottom line, there is a lot we don't know about earnings, so allocate accordingly and be prepared for at least one more add lower/trim higher situation.

Lastly, remember the lessons of last year - if the year end really happens too soon, trim higher!

CNBC Power Lunch Invites Lee Munson to Talk Disney, Nike, American Airlines

I love to talk shop with Tyler and Kelly.

We covered the non-event of Peltz having a fit over profitability - I say the cash burn worked. Now if the stock price will only go up.

Nike is winning, direct to consumer is strong, China is opening up, and dollar is weak. So, stocks that have big non-US sales with China customers should have a tailwind. Same with EM in general.

American I'm not so sure about. They have to increase the amount of seats they have to sell, which involves more pilots, more planes, and most of all more business class seats. I'll take a pass - they seem to cancel my flights too much!

Munson talks energy stocks on CNBC's 3 Stock Lunch

This is less about energy stocks or individual stocks in general - and more about how analysts come up with their top picks for the new year, or what is known as their high conviction bets. My lesson here is that you have to read the actual report, not the short summary at the top to understand exactly what these Wall Street people are assuming to get their price targets. Yes, price targets matter.

For instance the first company had a conviction buy based on the idea that OPEC would really bump up capital expenditures next year. Well, I hope so because oil firms here are not reinvesting like the past. This is a big IF for a stock that has pretty much mirrored the more diversified energy sector ETFs.

Then the second company I talked about the price target on a stock trading at a nose-bleed 70x on 2023 earnings was only 10% higher. 10% higher for the risk of owning an individual stock? Hmmm.

The last one is more a craps shoot. Come on, if you are going to dip your toe into an individual stock, at least have some upside to taking the risk - but be aware that the huge upside was based on government permits, big increases to lithium prices and continued demand for EVs. There is nothing wrong with individual stocks or taking risk, or even speculating, just know than when you invest in something based on somebody else's work, know their assumptions.

Lee Munson Talks Big Picture with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business

What a great time!

I got to talk big picture and share my trading thoughts. Here is the bottom line: we are still in a bear market. I've been able to buy asset classes at good prices this fall after taking some money off the table back in August - but ask yourself, do you really think the Fed is going to let the market trade significantly higher ahead of inflation over 7%...5%...4%?

If you are super overweight stocks right now, you may want to consider taking some exposure off and get back to just overweight. With tax loss harvesting coming into play next month, a December Fed meeting, and earnings just starting to cave in, we could see some type of replay of December 2018. Meaning, lots of volatility.

Think about it - every growth player out there is hoping for a fast pivot back to cheap money - I'm looking for the Fed to do what they say they are going to do - finish off the hikes over the next few months then pause until inflation comes down, not cut just so your money losing tech stocks can trade higher.

As for bonds - I'm simply staying shorter term for now. Why step into a complex, risky environment?

Munson on CNBCs Power Lunch: Three Stock Lunch from Carnival to Amazon

Let's break down what is going on here. Carnival is one of those "hope" stocks. You hope it will be okay but they needed to raise more equity, diluting shareholders this year (diluted 86% since the pandemic!!!) and then borrow another billion today. Not my thing.

Then we get over to Micron, which continues to have issues selling DRAM in computers and consumer electronics - not the place you want to be right now. Today they say production will be cut by 20%. I understand some will say that means higher prices and profits once the glut becomes scarcity, but if you play that game, why not buy it at a cheaper price to book - you know, when they bang the garbage cans and you can hear "bring out your dead."

Then there is Amazon. A broken down FANG stock that hasn't been this beat up since 2008. They are cutting 3% of their corporate workforce, freezing hiring, closing down unprofitable parts of the business and getting ready for leaner times. I like that. I like buying a big blue chip cheap that nobody wants to own. All the froth from Covid has come out of the price. Sounds like a deal to me.

3 Stock Lunch: Bulldozers, burgers, and bloated valuations

My best hit on 3 Stock Lunch to date. Let's get into it.

CAT - great earnings, China is less than 10% of earnings and wasn't a disaster, and no complaining about the strong dollar. This is an example of improved sentiment - which is why it's an interesting stock to look at. Notice that they went from reducing inventory by 300million to dealers to increasing to dealers by 700million? And a bears didn't bring that up. They just sold a bunch on the books stuff that is sitting in a showroom. Clearly people are just happy they are making money.

MCD - increased the dividend by 10%, no complaining about the dollar - even with 66% of sales coming from outside the US. Even European stores did well. Plus, the got Russia off the books this quarter. I guess adult Happy Meals worked out. NOW - nope. Classic example of why eventually valuations matter.

Service NOW had great numbers, growing at 20%, but it's a 400 buck stock making less than a buck in earnings. Come on, most big firms in America are already clients. Sure, I don't think people will stop paying for their HR software, but they are not a new fresh thing anymore. In this environment, investors aren't going to put up with high P/Es - because it could take a lot longer to reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

As you can see, you can learn a lot about the overall market by checking out individual stocks and how they react to earnings.

Three Stock Lunch: Breaking down busted up stocks

Killing it on CNBC today. We broke down Splunk, the Fox/Newscorp merger, and Robolux - put it this way, I love companies that are restructuring or are out of favor. Splunk had a chance with the Cisco merger and now it's down to cost cutting. Fox only broke themselves up after the phone hacking scandal 10 years from now, so today it's still about cost cutting, but what will be the collateral damage? The Robolux is a total hot stock, hard to value, loses a little money - but isn't fundamentally broken and seeing their users spend more time, more money over time. With everything going on in the world, I'd rather take my chances speculating on a firm that has a beat up stock price rather than beat up fundamentals.

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September Sell-Off: Back to the Scene of Crime of June Lows

Fun hit with Dave Briggs and Rachelle Akuffo - keeping it fresh over at Yahoo! Finance. I talk about what I'm buying, what past period this reminds me of, and what is totally different.

Put it this way - markets are difficult when they are oversold because you have to be a contrarian, to zig when others zag.

It's also worth noting that many people in the industry have never seen inflation before, let alone the experience of investing through it.

Lee Munson on FBN’s ‘The Claman Countdown’ Talking Bank Earnings

Just a fun interview talking about my favorite areas of the market. While I like big banks stocks - they are really an example of large and small firms beat up from inflation pressure, but great long term prospects going forward. Do you want to invest going forward, beyond the current bear market towards firms that need evermore cash to keep the doors open, or firms that already make money today, pay dividends, and can survive and thrive from overall higher rates and higher inflation than the last 10 years? I say the latter.